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Talking Points: • Friday afternoon, President Trump added to the China trade war threat with another $267 billion in tariffs • Risk trends are starting to groan under the speculative excess and cummulative fundamental stress • Watch for fundamental triggers for technical snap backs for the, Pound, and With the Pound sliding for four months, the rallying sharply these past weeks and the Dollar waiting for a clear break, keep track of speculative positioning. See how retail traders are positioning in the FX majors, indices, gold and intraday using the on the sentiment page. The Trade War Tab Continues to Balloon, But Don't Forget Other Key Themes. As if discouraging market participants from being too relaxed into the close of the week, US President Donald Trump decided to raise the economic and financial stakes of the global trade war in the twilight hours of trade Friday. The buried sessions of skylar grey zip hoodie women. The architect of the remarkable rise in protectionist trade policy raised the stakes even further. At the many front of this economic confrontation, the President made mention of the $200 billion increase that his administration is considering following the close of the public feedback period. An escalation of this magnitude alone is extraordinary and it would push China to move beyond the like-for-like tax response if it were to keep to direct retaliations (as it would surpass its total import bill for US goods).

Yet, perhaps noticing the market was already acclimating to the threat or seeing the PBoC had managed to stabilize the, Trump further announced that they were considering another $267 billion in tariffs beyond the $200 billion already in limbo. That would exceed the total imports of Chinese goods for 2017. The market has no doubt learned not to doubt the US government's resolve to pursue these painful initiatives, but genuine risk aversion has not yet kicked in. With a repeat - and thinly veiled - warning to Japan in their trade dealings, it is clear that this remains a crucial global growth and sentiment theme. Yet, while the scale of trade wars demands our attention, it doesn't diminish the importance of other possible systemic threats like an emerging market contagion, monetary policy-triggered rebalance or political risk wave of fear. Risk Trends: Awaiting the High Correlation Tumble Despite the number and scale of systemic risks global investors face, we have not seen the markets commit to a systemic deleveraging of speculative exposure. Kawai k4 patch editor kiwi. There certainly have been bouts of indigestion for various at-risk asset classes, but nothing approaching a market-wide re-balancing.

A material disparity in performance of key risk assets has arisen over previous weeks and months which is itself indicative of a lack in clarity for speculative appetite - bullish or bearish. Over the past 12 months, the emerging markets have proven the most troubled of the major asset classes that I follow on a regular basis. The contagion risks arise from the confluence of pain from trade wars (including sanctions), monetary policy normalization and recognition of a growth/return imbalance. This can readily be a template for even the most mainstream assets, but likely only when the recognition and intensity of risk aversion build. A key measure of sentiment in this situation is the performance of the holdouts. That would be the US indices.